Devastating Effects of Affordable Care Act Repeal

The Urban Institute puts some hard numbers on what will happen if the Republicans in Congress dismantle the Affordable Care Act. They’re shocking.

An estimated 53.5 million people would have no health insurance in 2021. That’s more than double the number who’d have no coverage if the ACA were intact.

Coverage would shrink most for low-income people enrolled in Medicaid, presumably because states would no longer receive funds to cover most of the costs of people who became eligible when they expanded their programs.

They’d be hard put to make up the loss and so would probably set lower limits on income eligibility, cut back on services covered and/or further reduce their reimbursements to healthcare providers.

Looking only at the first of these cost-savers, the Institute estimates that 14.5 million fewer children and working-age adults would have coverage under Medicaid.

The Institute’s estimates do not include the results of converting Medicaid to a block grant, as lead Congressional Republicans—and our incoming President—favor.

His choice for Secretary of Health of Human Services included one in the budget plan he produced while Chairman of the House Budget Committee. It would have cut federal Medicaid spending by a whopping $1 trillion over the next 10 years.

No way that state and local governments could compensate for losses so great. The crunch, however, could well be larger.

An economic downturn (likely) would cause job losses and so make more people income-eligible, even with lower thresholds. The federal government would no longer pick up its share, as it does under the current system.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities used the Institute’s data to estimate state-level losses. Here’s what we learn about the District of Columbia.

In 2019, 32,000 fewer residents would have health insurance if Congress repeals the ACA. This, like the nationwide total, is more than double the number who’d otherwise no coverage.

Nearly 23,500 more residents have gained affordable health insurance through Medicaid since 2013. Many would lose this coverage unless the District used its own funds to make up for the federal funds that would no longer pay most of the costs for the newly eligible. That would require a total of $1.7 billion between 2019 and 2028.

The District would also lose $85 million in funding for its health insurance marketplace. And residents who now have insurance through the marketplace would immediately lose the tax credits that subsidize their costs.

The Center doesn’t estimate how much more they’d have to pay to retain the coverage they have now. It does, however, say that the credits cover 73% of monthly premiums nationwide. Faced with that much more out of pocket, many lower-income residents would presumably forgo insurance.

In short, repeal of the ACA will have devastating effects on low and moderate-income District residents, as it will on virtually everyone but the very well-off nationwide.

Millionaires would, in fact, get tax cuts bigger than the total average income of families in the bottom two-fifths of the income scale. The very wealthiest would get cuts averaging $260,630.

We’re given to understand that the Republican leadership has put repeal at the top of its agenda. It probably won’t, however, impose an immediate death sentence on every provision, what with not having the promised replace.

It does, however, have a bill that Republican majorities have already passed. It would eliminate the two provisions I’ve focused on here—the additional funding for states that have expanded Medicaid and the tax credits that low and moderate-income people get to subsidize the costs of plans they buy on exchanges.

Republicans also, as I’ve mentioned, have the basis for converting Medicaid into a block grant. So they could make a costly down payment on a major campaign promise.

Hard to find a hopeful note to end on. So I’ll borrow from Ron Pollack, the long-time Executive Director of Families USA, a leading advocacy organization for Americans’ healthcare needs.

“One should never underestimate the extraordinary backlash that occurs when people have something they value that’s taken away,” he says.

What remains to be seen is whether they’ll lash back forcefully enough before the affordable healthcare protections the ACA provides are taken away.

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