Last week, the top 1% of American workers finished paying their Social Security taxes for the year — an inflection point flagged and flogged by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. On the very same day, the Senate Budget Committee held a hearing on the impending depletion of the Social Security Disability Insurance trust fund.
These two events are related because the first provides a fresh perspective on the second, as well as a solution that’s not fresh, but seems sensible anyway.
As I’ve written before, the so-called DI trust fund will run out of reserves in 2016, unless Congress and the President agree on a solution. If they don’t, former workers with severe disabilities will receive only about 80% of their benefits — an average loss of nearly $244 per month.
That’s a real dent in the household budget. Average benefits now are $1,165 a month for disabled workers themselves and only $811 more for those with qualifying spouses and children.
The shortfall has been predicted for a long time, based mainly on demographic changes in the workforce, e.g., the aging of the baby boomer cohort, the large increase in the number of women working — and working long enough to qualify for SSDI.
Federal policy choices have contributed as well — specifically, the decision to take some pressure off the Old Age and Survivors trust fund by raising the eligibility age for full retirement benefits. But for that, many disabled baby boomers wouldn’t be receiving SSDI benefits any more.
All these factors explain why money is going out of the DI trust fund. The beginning of the payroll tax holiday for the very highest earners — and upcoming tax holidays for others who are doing quite well — explains why not as much money is flowing in.
As I’m sure you know, all of us who get paid for our work owe payroll taxes. If we’re employees, we pay 6.2% for Social Security. Our employers deduct it from our checks and pay the same amount. If we’re self-employed, we owe the whole 12.4%.
The index almost always rises, though rarely by a lot. The cap this year is $118,500 — up by $1,500 from last year.
But as everyone who hasn’t been living in a cave knows, more and more income is flowing to very high earners — those making a million or more a year. There were already six times as many of them in 2013 as in 1989, according to the Center for American Progress.
So more and more income escapes the Social Security tax. And it’s not only wage income enjoyed by the millionaires and billionaires, as this year’s cap indicates.
Class warfare alert! Not really. The point is that income inequality helps explain why the DI trust fund could soon run dry — and why the OASI trust fund will long about 2034 — unless our federal policymakers come up with a way to preserve the benefits that most workers and their families need.
A stopgap solution we already have — a relatively small increase in the share of payroll taxes going to the DI trust fund. But as I recently wrote, House Republicans have passed a rule to block any such shift, precedents notwithstanding.
They say they want a long-term solution to the whole solvency problem. Thus far, however, the most we can glimpse of what they have in mind comes from Senate Budget Committee Chairman Mike Enzi, who opened last week’s hearing.
He trashed on the President, of course — in part, for proposing the payroll tax shift. But he also suggested that more workers with disabilities severe enough to meet SSDI’s strict standards could actually work because technology enables people to work from home, start their own businesses, etc.
Michael Hiltzik at the Los Angeles Times perceives a move to distinguish deserving from undeserving SSDI recipients. Perhaps. Or perhaps it means something that one of Enzi’s friendly witnesses advocated “early intervention,” i.e., rehabilitation and other services to keep people with “work-limiting conditions” in the labor force.
Bottom line, however, is that enabling some additional workers with disabilities to remain gainfully employed won’t do a whole heck of a lot to keep the DI trust fund solvent — and nothing at all to preserve full benefits for retirees.
Uncapping the payroll tax cap would. If Congress had simply scrapped the cap four years ago, it could have closed about 90% of the projected funding gap for 75 years.
Other cap-scrapping scenarios could have closed roughly 70-80%. These, which seem more politically realistic, would have boosted benefits for higher earners, as well as capturing more of their income. We’ve had cap-lifting, as well as cap-scrapping proposals too.
So there’s more than one way to minimize the projected shortfall. But any solution that leaves the cap alone is bound to severely reduce retirement benefits — perhaps deny some severely disabled workers and their families any benefits at all.
Not much of a worry for those folks whose tax holiday has already begun. But for the rest of us ….